Northern Arizona

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	310.0
Current RPI:	310
Expected SOS:	166
Current SOS:	166
Current Record:	4-26
Expected Record:	4-26
Current Conf Record:	2-17
Expected Conf Record:	2-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-9
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	250
Expected OOC SOS:	134

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-26	310.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Arizona.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	101-67	L	0%
11-17	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	97-62	L	0%
11-20	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	A	80-58	L	0%
11-23	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	N	66-76	L	0%
11-24	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	N	77-71	L	0%
11-30	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	89-57	L	0%
12-2	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	A	52-60	W	100%
12-9	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	79-51	L	0%
12-14	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	H	77-90	L	0%
12-18	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	A	70-56	L	0%
12-20	Jacksonville (286.0)	ASun	A	72-83	W	100%
12-28	Montana (76.0)	BSky	H	69-87	L	0%
12-30	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	73-76	L	0%
1-4	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	A	95-55	L	0%
1-6	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	A	64-60	L	0%
1-13	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	A	81-75	L	0%
1-18	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	76-81	L	0%
1-20	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	H	80-84	L	0%
1-25	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	A	75-77	W	100%
1-27	Montana (76.0)	BSky	A	82-64	L	0%
2-1	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	61-63	L	0%
2-3	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	H	55-87	L	0%
2-10	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	H	54-63	L	0%
2-15	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	A	95-60	L	0%
2-17	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	A	86-81	L	0%
2-22	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	58-53	W	100%
2-24	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	66-72	L	0%
3-1	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	A	66-52	L	0%
3-3	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	A	85-68	L	0%
3-6	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	N	82-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Arizona's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northern Arizona's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Arizona.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northern Arizona	BSky	26.28	26.28	16.67	16.67	-17.52	-17.52
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.32	4.32	58.62	58.62	0.74	0.74
Southern Utah	BSky	4.32	4.32	32.14	32.14	-1.54	-1.54
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.23	4.23	53.33	53.33	0.28	0.28
Idaho	BSky	4.22	4.22	66.67	66.67	1.41	1.41
Montana	BSky	4.22	4.22	75.86	75.86	2.18	2.18
Idaho St.	BSky	4.14	4.14	38.46	38.46	-0.96	-0.96
Weber St.	BSky	4.11	4.11	57.69	57.69	0.63	0.63
Montana St.	BSky	4.08	4.08	35.71	35.71	-1.17	-1.17
North Dakota	BSky	2.67	2.67	31.03	31.03	-1.01	-1.01
Portland St.	BSky	2.64	2.64	55.17	55.17	0.27	0.27
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.56	2.56	17.24	17.24	-1.68	-1.68
UC Irvine	BW	1.83	1.83	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Arizona St.	P12	1.83	1.83	63.33	63.33	0.49	0.49
Santa Clara	WCC	1.81	1.81	32.14	32.14	-0.65	-0.65
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	1.81	1.81	34.62	34.62	-0.56	-0.56
South Dakota	Sum	1.77	1.77	72.41	72.41	0.79	0.79
Arizona	P12	1.75	1.75	78.79	78.79	1.01	1.01
San Diego	WCC	1.72	1.72	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Kansas St.	B12	1.72	1.72	65.62	65.62	0.54	0.54
Hampton	MEAC	1.67	1.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	1.67	1.67	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
South Florida	Amer	1.67	1.67	29.03	29.03	-0.70	-0.70
Pepperdine	WCC	0.31	0.31	16.13	16.13	-0.21	-0.21
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.30	0.30	14.29	14.29	-0.22	-0.22
BYU	WCC	0.26	0.26	70.59	70.59	0.11	0.11
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.24	0.24	70.00	70.00	0.10	0.10
Utah Valley	WAC	0.24	0.24	65.52	65.52	0.07	0.07
Stanford	P12	0.24	0.24	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.24	0.24	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.22	0.22	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.22	0.22	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	10.34	10.34	-0.16	-0.16
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.19	0.19	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Washington St.	P12	0.19	0.19	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Utah St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.17	0.17	84.85	84.85	0.12	0.12
UCLA	P12	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Utah	P12	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.14	0.14	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Pacific	WCC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.14	0.14	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Oregon	P12	0.13	0.13	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.08	0.08
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Georgia St.	SB	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
USC Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01